The Uneasy Alliance: What Lies Beneath Sino-Russian Friendship

The relationship between China and Russia has been touted as a “friendship with no limits,” but experts say that’s just a euphemism for Beijing calling the shots. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank, points out that Russia is fully dependent on China, which dictates the terms of their trade agreements. China is Russia’s largest trading partner, while Russia makes up only 4% of China’s international trade – a stark illustration of the imbalance.

China’s growing economic influence has created a need for access to new markets and resources. With Western sanctions biting, Beijing has become the first port of call for expertise in technology, science, and industry. A recent report by Bloomberg found that Russia imports over 90% of its sanctioned technology from China, a 10% increase on the previous year. This partnership is also crucial for Russia’s war machine.

Russia, meanwhile, is desperate for alternatives to Western trade and investment. With ties to the West fraying, Moscow has few viable options – and Beijing is more than happy to step in. As Marcin Kaczmarski, a lecturer in security studies at the University of Glasgow, notes, China is aware of the asymmetry and is unwilling to push Russia around. This self-restraint is partly driven by pragmatism: pushing Russia too hard could spark resistance from Moscow’s elites.

China also benefits strategically from its partnership with Russia, particularly when it comes to its potential invasion of Taiwan. Russia brings military technologies and capabilities that China can tap into, including niche equipment that Moscow can still sell on the international market. Additionally, Russia has vast energy reserves that are strategically important to China.

It is this interplay between dependence and strategic benefits that lies at the heart of the Sino-Russian alliance. While it may seem like a marriage made in heaven, the reality is far more complicated – and precarious. As Putin and Xi continue to dance around each other, we should be careful not to see their friendship as simply a love affair – but rather as a cold calculation about what’s in each country’s interests.

The partnership has its limits, however. While China may hold the reins, Russia’s ability to stand its ground and resist external pressure means that Beijing can’t push it around too hard. Take the example of Xi’s trip to Moscow last year, where he reportedly urged Putin not to use nuclear arms in Ukraine – only for Moscow to announce plans to station nuclear weapons in Belarus just days later.

This isn’t just about Russia’s pride; it’s also a reflection of its strategic importance to China. As Gabuev points out, Russia is still a great power that cannot be a junior partner – and Beijing knows it. This means that while the relationship may seem unequal on paper, it’s actually a delicate balance between dependence and self-restraint.

As we watch Putin’s visit unfold, one thing becomes clear: this partnership will only continue to strengthen if both sides can find common ground. But what happens when China’s interests diverge from Russia’s – or vice versa? We’re already seeing signs of friction in areas like the economy and energy cooperation.

For now, it seems like Beijing is willing to play a long game with Moscow. As Kaczmarski notes, “China is not pushing Russia around.” But how far will this self-restraint stretch? And what happens when – or if – China’s ambitions in Taiwan start to take priority over its partnership with Russia?

Only time will tell. One thing is certain: the Sino-Russian alliance may seem like a match made in heaven, but scratch beneath the surface and you’ll find an uneasy balance of power that could change everything.