Saudi Arabia joins US strikes on Iranian allies in Iraq
· news
Riyadh’s Calculated Risk: A New Front in Iraq and a Warning to Tehran
The recent joint air strikes by Saudi Arabia and the US against Iran-backed militias in Iraq have sent shockwaves through the region, marking a significant shift in Riyadh’s stance towards its long-time rival. The operation was justified as an act of self-defence by Saudi officials, but the question on everyone’s mind is: what does this mean for the delicate balance of power in the Middle East?
For months, Saudi Arabia had been holding back from direct military involvement alongside the US, opting instead to rely on intercepting incoming attacks and seeking a diplomatic solution. However, repeated drone strikes against its energy infrastructure led Riyadh to conclude that restraint was no longer an option. According to Toby Matthiesen, senior lecturer in Global Islam at the University of Bristol, “it looks like the Saudis are getting more openly militarily involved… after a few months of very severe restraint.”
The choice of Iraq as the site of these strikes is particularly significant. Unlike Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has been engaged since 2015, Iraq represents new ground for Riyadh’s military involvement. Several militias accused of attacking Saudi territory operate in Iraq, making it an attractive target for a limited show of force.
Experts suggest that Riyadh’s assessment of the cost of continued restraint has changed. The cumulative effect of repeated attacks and growing economic risks, particularly with regards to the Bab al-Mandab strait, led Saudi leaders to conclude that Tehran needed a clearer warning. This shift in strategy reflects a broader diplomatic calculation. Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia sought to rebuild relations with Iran on the basis that long-term coexistence is preferable to perpetual confrontation.
The Chinese-brokered agreement in 2023 to restore diplomatic ties between the two countries was seen as a significant step towards this goal. However, the recent strikes suggest that this pragmatic approach may not be enough to deter Tehran from continuing its proxy war across the Middle East. As Kenzy Dessouki, a student at IE University in Madrid who specialises in Saudi-Iran relations, notes, “the two countries have historically channelled their tension through a broader proxy war involving multiple states and militant groups.”
Riyadh’s avoidance of striking Iranian territory directly suggests that it is still seeking to avoid direct confrontation with its rival. As Javier Bordon, a researcher in International Relations at Lancaster University, notes, “Saudi Arabia portrays itself as a moderate country… and that also plays out in the way that they are trying to manage the ongoing conflict.” However, the question remains: will this approach ultimately help prevent the war from spreading, or will it only serve to further entrench the rivalries of the region?
The Middle East has just become a lot more complicated.
Reader Views
- RJReporter J. Avery · staff reporter
While the US and Saudi Arabia's joint strikes in Iraq may be seen as a calculated risk against Iran-backed militias, they also highlight Riyadh's growing desperation to protect its energy infrastructure from ongoing attacks. What's striking is that Saudi Arabia's decision to escalate military involvement comes at a time when their own internal power struggles are escalating, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman facing increasing scrutiny over his governance record and economic management. This complicates the narrative of Riyadh's "clear warning" to Tehran – what if this intervention is less about sending a message to Iran than trying to shift attention away from Saudi Arabia's domestic woes?
- CMColumnist M. Reid · opinion columnist
The timing of Saudi Arabia's escalation in Iraq can't be ignored – Tehran is facing growing internal pressure from protests over economic stagnation, which Riyadh must see as an opportunity to weaken its rival. But will this bold move prove a Pyrrhic victory? By opening up new fronts on Iraqi soil, Riyadh risks drawing the US deeper into the conflict, with unpredictable consequences for regional stability and oil markets. It's a calculated gamble, but one that may ultimately prove costly in more ways than just dollars and cents.
- CSCorrespondent S. Tan · field correspondent
While Riyadh's move to join US strikes in Iraq is being hailed as a bold rebuke of Iran's regional influence, one cannot help but wonder about the long-term implications for Saudi Arabia's own national security. By targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, Riyadh may have momentarily alleviated the pressure on its energy infrastructure, but it has also opened Pandora's box in the fragile sectarian landscape of northern Iraq. The calculus behind this decision needs to be weighed against the potential risks of escalation and blowback from Tehran – will Saudi Arabia's gambit pay off or set off a regional powder keg?